Job furloughs for the civilian defense workforce won’t be used right away if a deal is not struck this week to avert the fiscal cliff, but the Pentagon’s top leader said temporary layoffs later might be unavoidable.

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta outlined the plan to the Pentagon workforce last week, but he didn’t rule out furloughs with “requisite advance notice” at some point if Congress and President Obama fail don’t reach a deal by January. The president has exempted uniformed service members from job losses in the tax and deficit negotiations.

While the commitment to protect jobs is welcome, the future remains uncertain for many civilians who work at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and Springfield Air National Guard Base until a deal is reached, analysts say.

“It is good news that the secretary of defense has clearly stated the intention to preserve jobs as long as possible,” said Michael Gessel, Dayton Development Coalition vice president of federal government programs. “But it does not change the uncertainty that surrounds defense jobs, and it does not change the likelihood that there will be defense cuts in the coming year.”

Uncertainty will linger for now, he said.

“There will eventually be an agreement but it isn’t clear when that’s going to take place or how much pain the nation will go through before our leaders reach a compromise,” the former congressional staffer said. “The political process does respond and when the American electorate is unhappy enough, the process will find a solution.”

Wright-Patterson has more than 29,000 military and civilian workers, according to a base analysis last year. A 2010 survey showed 11,635 federal civilian employees and 6,250 contracted and private business workers on base.

The sprawling installation contributes to the employment of nearly 36,000 people outside the fence, according to Wright-Patterson figures.

“It’s got to be some kind of relief for them even if it’s just the tornado may turn right and may not hit your house,” said Deborah Gross, executive director of the Dayton Area Defense Contractors Association, which represents roughly 250 defense-related businesses and 15,000 workers in the Miami Valley. “You’re still in the cellar waiting for it to happen. … And you can’t come out until it’s over because you don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C., isn’t confident employees won’t feel financial pain from the budget fallout. He said the Defense Department’s civilian workforce could see rolling furloughs of up to one month starting in February.

“If sequestration stays in effect,” he said in an email, “we could see furloughs for virtually every DoD civilian employee by the end of the fiscal year. … Cuts are not imminent, but they are on the horizon.”

He advised employees to make financial plans and avoid major purchases until budget issues are settled. “It can be really hard on a family to lose a month’s pay,” he wrote.

Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, R-West Chester Twp., have not reached a deal on the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts and spending reductions, which could trigger budget sequestration, or automatic reductions, that would begin around Jan. 2. Congress is expected to be back in Washington this week after a holiday break.

Under the sequester, the Defense Department would confront automatic, across-the-board cuts of $500 billion over a decade to most programs. Domestic spending throughout the budget would face the same conundrum. Already, the Pentagon has accepted $487 billion in reductions over the next 10 years.

“Sequestration was never intended to be implemented, and there is no reason why both sides should not be able to come together and prevent this scenario,” Panetta said in the memo.

The defense leader laid out what the implication would be, potentially, if a deal isn’t reached.

“These cuts, while significant and harmful to our collective mission as an agency, would not necessarily require immediate reductions in spending,” he wrote. “Under sequestration, we would still have funds available after Jan. 2, 2013, but our overall funding for the remainder of the year would be reduced. Accordingly, this situation is different from other scenarios we have encountered in recent years, such as threats of government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations.”

Panetta said if the Pentagon must operate under reduced funding “for an extended period of time, we may have to consider furloughs or other actions in the future.”

Furloughs or job losses could be eliminated if the two sides reached a deal, he added.

“We would also immediately cancel any scheduled personnel actions should a deficit reduction agreement be reached that restores our agency funding,” he wrote.

Army Lt. Col. Elizabeth Robbins, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said Wednesday its too soon to say how budget cuts might impact Wright-Patterson or the Defense Department.