Southwest Ohio is the most Republican region of Ohio. Hamilton County — home to Cincinnati — is traditionally one of the most Republican urban counties in the nation. In recent elecitons, Democratic presidential candidates have only won there in 2008, 1964 and 1936. Montgomery County is the only reliable Democratic county in the region, but has gone Republican a few times, most recently in 1988, 1984 and 1972. The county in the region that has swung back and forth the most is Clark. It went Democratic in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1968 and 1964 and went Republican in 2008, 2004, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976 and 1972. Every other rural or suburban county in the region has been steadily Republican since 1976.

1992

Bill Clinton won just 40.2 percent of the vote in Ohio, but that was enough to win the state in a three-way race with George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. Bush won every county in southwest Ohio except Montgomery, which he only lost by 1 percent, and Clark. But Perot ate into Bush’s numbers in several rural counties, which hurt him statewide. In Butler, Warren, Clermont and Miami counties, Perot received more than 20 percent of the vote.

1996

Clinton defeated Bob Dole in Ohio 47-41 percent, with Perot getting nearly 11 percent of the vote. In southwest Ohio’s largest county – Hamilton – Dole defeated Clinton by 7 percent, but Clinton did better in Montgomery and Clark counties than he did in 1992. The small Dole lead in southwest Ohio, however, was no match Clinton in Democratic strongholds. In the Cleveland area, Clinton defeated Dole by more than 300,000 votes.

2000

The national contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore was the closest in a generation – 48.3 percent for Gore and 47.87 percent for Bush— but Bush won Ohio with 50 percent compared to 46.5 percent for Gore, helping him to the presidency. Independent Ralph Nader got 2.5 percent of the vote statewide. Bush dominated in southwest Ohio, getting nearly 60 percent of the vote in the Cincinnati market and cutting into the Democratic vote in Montgomery and Clark counties from 1996, losing there but barely. Gore won Clark County by just more than 300 votes.

2004

The Bush-John Kerry race was the closest in Ohio since 1976 when Jimmy Carter barely defeated Gerald Ford by 0.2 percent of the vote. In 2004, Kerry lost Ohio by just 2 percent. Had he won the state and its 20 electoral votes, he would have won the presidency. Kerry did not concede defeat until the day after Election Day, hoping that Ohio’s provisional ballots would send him over the top. Once again Southwest Ohio was a major contributor to Bush’s win. Not only did he receive more than 60 percent of the vote in the Cincinnati market, this time Clark County went for the Republican. Kerry won Democratic Montgomery County by just over 4,000 votes.

2008

Knowing the importance of southwest Ohio, Republican John McCain announced his choice for vice president, Sarah Palin at Wright State University in Fairborn in August of 2008. Obama and McCain hit the region hard with dozens of campaign events in the area. In the end Obama won the state easily with 51.4 percent of the vote to McCain’s 46.8 percent. For the first time since 1964, the Republican stronghold of Hamilton County went for a Democrat. Without an overwhelming win in the region, McCain stood no chance to counter Obama’s huge margins in the other urban areas of the state.