The past eight seasons have had above-average activity, and this year seems likely to continue the run, according to forecasts by the National Hurricane Center and Bill Gray of Colorado State University, one of the world's leading hurricane forecast experts. Gray predicts 17 named storms (sustained winds 39 mph or higher) in the Atlantic - six more than the average season. The forecasts also call for about three more hurricanes (sustained winds 74 mph or higher) than average and possibly triple the number of major hurricanes (sustained winds 111 mph or higher).

All of the important factors seem to be in place for a large number of storms. Ocean waters are warmer than average, high-level winds that can shear off the tops of hurricanes and weaken them are expected to be low, and a La Nina is in place, which often is linked to an active season.

This year, a study was concluded that discovered a cycle in hurricane activity that spans decades. We seem to be at the peak of one of those cycles. In another decade or so we may return to a span of below-average activity. From 1971 to 1994, half the seasons were below average, and only three seasons exhibited a number of storms well above average.

Below-average years still can be catastrophic; only six named storms developed in 1992, but one was Hurricane Andrew, the costliest American hurricane before Katrina.

The only good news in the forecasts is that last year's record number of hurricanes is not expected to be repeated. Why? The warmer the Atlantic Ocean waters are, the better the chances for more and stronger hurricanes. Atlantic waters last year were as warm as had been seen in a long time. This, combined with near-perfect conditions for hurricanes to form and strengthen, resulted in a record-breaking year.

The Atlantic is warm now, but not as warm as in 2005, so neither the 28 named storms nor 15 hurricanes are expected to be repeated.