DAYTON, Ohio -- McCain, 7 Weeks Out, Positioned to Hold Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes for GOP: In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 09/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Barack Obama by 4 points, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHIO-TV. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 45%.

McCain leads 5:4 in Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Toledo. Obama leads 5:4 in greater Cleveland. McCain leads by 16 points among whites; Obama leads by 82 points among blacks. 6 in 10 voters say the president should focus on the economy ahead of all other issues, and among that group, Obama leads 5:4. But the smaller group of voters who say terrorism is most important backs McCain 32:1. 3 times as many Democrats crossover to vote Republican as Republicans who crossover to vote Democrat.

Among men, McCain leads by 13 points; among women, Obama leads by 4 -- a 17 point gender gap. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama and McCain are tied. Among voters older than John McCain and those who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 10. McCain leads 5:4 among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Obama leads 4:3 among those who earn less than $50,000 a year.

Filtering: WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Ohio adults 09/12/08 through 09/14/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 692 were determined by WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Like other research firms polling in Ohio, SurveyUSA did not mention Bob Barr or Ralph Nader by name in this questionnaire. Barr supporters would have been able to say they supported "another candidate" when asked to choose between McCain and Obama.

If Barr's support is understated here, McCain's advantage is overstated. Interviews conducted after federal bailout of Fannie Mae, but before bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Interviews conducted after most, but not all, of ABC News' interview with Sarah Palin had been broadcast. Ohio has 20 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Ohio by 2 points in 2004 and by 4 points in 2000.

Asked of 692 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama

49% McCain (R)

45% Obama (D)

3% Other

2% Undecided

Payday Lending Poll:
7 Weeks to Election, Half in Ohio Not Yet Focused on Payday Lending Ballot Issue: 50 days until votes are counted, 47% of Ohio's likely voters are not yet certain how they will vote on Issue 5, regarding payday lending.

Today, 22% of likely voters say they are "certain" to vote "Yes" on the issue; 24% are "certain" to vote "No"; 54% are "not certain." When the 54% who are "not certain" are asked whether they lean toward voting "Yes," lean toward voting "No," or do not lean, the results are as shown below: 25% Yes, 28% No, 47% still not certain. Because the public is not yet focused on this issue, volatile swings may occur between now and November 4.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Ohio adults 09/12/08 through 09/14/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 692 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.

Asked of 692 likely voters incl. leaners (Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%)
Ohio will also vote on several ballot proposals. On Issue, 5, regarding payday lending, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {"Not Certain" voters were asked: At this hour, do you lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

25% Lean Toward - Yes

28% Lean Toward - No

47% Don't Lean