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Posted: 6:00 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
Yes, there will be some twists and turns most likely in coming days in the Democratic race for President, but barring a major rush by Democratic leaders to Barack Obama, the pivotal showdown in the race between Obama and Hillary Clinton is going to take place on March 4th in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
While Obama worked Wisconsin for votes on Wednesday, Hillary Clinton spent a second day in Texas. She shifts her focus for Thursday and Friday to Ohio and only then goes on to the Badger State, which holds a primary on Tuesday (Hawaii also holds a caucus the same day; Obama is favored in both.)
As I mentioned Wednesday, the expectations game is very important. Democratic strategist James Carville, who helped Bill Clinton to victory in 1992 said yesterday that if Hillary Clinton cannot win both Texas and Ohio, then Obama will be the party nominee.
Chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn put out a memo for reporters yesterday, playing up the narrow difference in delegates, not the eight straight wins for Obama.
"This election will come down to delegates," Penn wrote. "Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are separated by approximately 40 delegates right now - that is, barely 1% of all the delegates to the Democratic convention.
Penn continued, "Hillary leads in the three largest, delegate rich states remaining, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. These three states have 492 delegates - 64% of the remaning delegates Hillary Clinton needs to win the nomination."
But for Clinton to get to Pennsylvania on April 22 with a legitimate chance, she must do well on March 4. A sweep for Obama will dramatically increase pressure on her to step aside for the junior Senator from Illinois.
Penn also played a very interesting card in his memo, saying, "As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates - not the candidate who wins the most states."
The Clinton camp certainly talks like they are in this for longer than March 4; whether Democratic leaders in Congress and around the nation will stand for that depends on her performance in Texas and Ohio.
Remember, one of her biggest trouble spots over the next two plus weeks will be a daily drumbeat of stories in the media that even if she wins states like Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, she won't be able to catch Obama in the delegate race, because of the way that Democrats award delegates.
Everyone of those stories can make it just a bit harder to convince voters that she is a candidate who has a chance to become the nominee.
McCain Starts Dropping Public Hints About Huckabee
Even as John McCain was enjoying his Tuesday night victories in three primaries, he started subtly turning the screws on Mike Huckabee, without being a jerk about it.
In a news conference with House GOP leaders (who announced their endorsement of the Arizona Senator) McCain started to see if he could publicly sweet talk Huckabee into heading for the sidelines.
"I don't pretend that I would like Governor Huckabee not in the race," said McCain. "But I respect his committment to do so and his committment to continue in the race."
"Of course I'd like for him to withdraw today, that would be much easier," McCain added.
As for Huckabee, he's back on the campaign trail today in Wisconsin, while McCain stumps in Rhode Island and Vermont. He goes to Wisconsin on Friday.
The subject of Republican unity was at the top of the agenda as McCain met behind closed doors with GOP lawmakers in the House on Wednesday. McCain described it as a "spirited and good discussion."
Leading the endorsements for McCain was House GOP leader John Boehner (R-OH), who was up front about their working relationship in the past.
"Clearly, I've had some disagreements with Senator McCain over the years. But I've got to tell you, I've watched this presidential race unfold and I've watch John McCain be a strong advocate for the principles I believe in."
McCain definitely has a sales job to do with some more conservative lawmakers, but he argues his bedrock principles of lower taxes, smaller government, a strong defense, no pork barrel spending and more should be attractive to his fellow Republicans in Congress.
It won't surprise me one bit to see the House GOP really try to work with McCain on the pork barrel issue. They are already trying to put Democrats on the defensive over earmarks this election year, believing the anti-pork issue is a winner with the voters.
The Obama Camp Plays the Expectations Game As Well
While the Clinton camp was talking about ways to ultimately win the nomination, the Obama camp was trying to knock that down and make the case that their man is the inevitable nominee.
The task fell in a conference call with reporters to campaign manager David Plouffe, who said there is no chance that Obama can fall behind in terms of delegates won in caucuses and primaries.
"The only way she could do it is by winning the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points," said Plouffe, who scoffed at the idea of such margins over his candidate.
Plouffe says Obama leads by 136 pledged delegates, just one of the many counts out there from both the campaigns and news organizations.
Sampling some of the numbers - CNN has Obama ahead 1,253 to 1,211.
The Associated Press estimate is Obama 1,275 to 1,220.
ABC News is 1,273 to 1,222.
So, as you can see, major news organizations are pretty much around the same numbers. It is a reminder that there is not much daylight between these two candidates, even after Obama has won eight straight states.
But you can still find some different numbers if you try hard enough. Thegreenpapers.org keeps their own running tab in a variety of formats. They have Clinton at 1,179 and Obama at 1,166.
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