On this President's Day holiday, the focus of the candidates is Wisconsin, which holds a primary on Tuesday, as Democrats battle in Hawaii and Wisconsin, while Republicans look for delegates in Wisconsin and Washington State.

The conventional wisdom is that Hawaii and Wisconsin are going to Barack Obama, but the polls leave me underwhelmed.  The average from three recent polls only gives Obama an edge of four points, which is pretty much margin of error stuff.

Are we missing something in the Badger State? 

I would have expected by now that Obama would be flashing big numbers in Wisconsin.  It seemed so logical, that the story over the weekend was that Hillary Clinton was going to leave Wisconsin on Monday instead of Tuesday.

So what do we believe right now?  Do we take the hint from a pre-primary day departure in Wisconsin by Hillary?  (As in, we're going to lose, so let's go to Ohio or Texas.)

Or do we put some faith in the polls, which so far have been wildly inaccurate at times on the Democratic side in this primary season?  Only four points in the favor of Obama?

Am I missing something here?