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Wednesday, May 22, 2013 | 1:30 a.m.

Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider

Posted: 10:20 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2008

Both Parties See Political Advantages on the Iraq War 

By Jamie Dupree

A day after John McCain's Straight Talk answer that Americans might judge his candidacy for President on the course of the war in Iraq, the Senate plunged back into yet another debate over Democratic plans to end the war.

It had been expected that Republicans would block consideration of the measure, but they decided to let the debate proceed, arguing that there have been widespread improvements in Iraq which Democrats are ignoring, so this debate is all the better to get out that information.

On the other side of the room, Democrats were a bit surprised by the turn of events, but they were more than glad to have an extended debate as well, arguing that President Bush has screwed things up in Iraq, so this debate is all the better to get out that information.

In other words, both parties in the Congress see ways they can gain a political edge on the war in Iraq.  Both of them probably can't be right, but then again, they might be.

Since Democrats took back control of the Congress last year, they have focused extensively on Iraq in terms of legislative efforts to reign in the war.  Their repeated votes have been derided by Republicans, while some Democrats think it's been a bit over the top as well.

Republicans meanwhile, who were once fleeing from President Bush as fast as possible, now see improvements in Iraq since the US military surge began last summer.  GOP lawmakers now argue that they can use these debates to showcase progress on the war.

I have said for months that as long as US military casualties in Iraq stayed low, Iraq would not be the number one issue for most voters.  But if lots of soldiers begin dying again, it will certainly hurt the GOP and John McCain.

For example, compare the periods of October 2006 through February of 2007 versus October 2007 versus February of 2008, in terms of US deaths.

By month from late 2006 to early 2007: 106-70-112-83-81
By month from late 2007 to early 2008:  38-37-23-40-29

Democrats say voters are sick and tired of the war and want it over.

Republicans say things are getting better and now is not the time for a withdrawal.

Those arguments both play well for the true believers in both parties.  How Iraq plays among Independents and swing voters will be the key in November on the Iraq war.



 
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