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Posted: 8:47 p.m. Monday, Oct. 27, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
With a week to go, the story line of this Presidential race remains the same. Barack Obama has the lead in the polls, with his advantage anywhere from just a few points to double digits. The question is where things will stand one week from today.
"It's just hard to imagine the terrain more tilted in one direction than what we have now," said political analyst Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute at a recent forum on the 2008 elections.
To watch at all levels, Democrats outraising and outspending Republicans is just astonishing."
Frankly, it is astonishing, because the GOP for years has been able to offset Democratic advantages on the ground by routinely outspending the Democrats.
Instead this year, Barack Obama has so much money, that he is spending it in states where most people think he has no chance.
For the media, Obama has almost been an economic stimulus of his own, given that his campaign has bought so much time for radio and TV ads.
The big question right now is, can things change over the next week? Sure they can.
Will they?
That is the $64,000 question.
This time of the campaign really reminds me of the last few minutes before a major horse race. Everyone knows who the favorite is. But not everyone is sold on that favorite, so you take a longshot.
In this case, there are only two horses in the race with a chance of winning. The on-line markets have Obama up above 85% in terms of his chances of a victory.
"Lacking any other horses in the race worth wagering on, I will cast my lot with him," said my father the horseplayer.
"What else is there to bet on?"
The latest round of polls done for Fox News by Rasmussen confirm that Obama still has a hold on not only key battleground states, but a few Red states as well from 2004 that are now in play, like Virginia.
But even as experts like Ornstein say they think a Democratic victory is in the cards, they're not ready to come out and predict that.
"It is always worth a caution, no matter what those numbers suggest," said Ornstein, who has been around Washington circles for years.
Still, there are a lot of Democrats around here who are thinking of a 1980 like victory for Obama. Ronald Reagan's win that year brought in dozens of new GOP lawmakers and swung the Senate to Republican control.
Are we due for the Democratic version of that this year?
As Bob Schieffer would say, "Only time will tell."
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