This week I'm going to try to break down the Congressional elections by focusing on a different geographical area each day, to allow us to drill down a little further on how each party is doing.  

We will start with the Mid Atlantic and New England states, an area that is very much dominated by Democrats in both the House and Senate.

MARYLAND - No change is expected in Maryland in the Senate, as Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) is expected win re-election easily.  The House races though could see at least one seat switch in MD-1, as freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) is in a very difficult re-election race.  One poll last week showed Kratovil down by 11 points in a seat that had been held for years by Republicans.

WEST VIRGINIA - Okay, we can have an argument about whether West Virginia is in the Mid-Atlantic, but I've stuffed them in here for today.  There are two Democratic seats in the House who could be in some hot water on Election Day, depending on what happens overall with voter turnout.  One of those lawmakers, Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV) is a veteran committee chairman; the other seat is that of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), who lost his primary.

The big race here is for Senate, as Gov. Joe Manchin (D) thought he had an easy road to victory, but Republican John Raese has done much better than anyone ever imagined in the polls.  Remember, John McCain won this state by 13 points - and that was in a great year for Democrats and Barack Obama.

DELAWARE - This state got a lot of attention in the primary, with the victory of Tea Party Republican Christine O'Donnell, when she knocked off Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE).  That win has opened the door for Democrats in both the House and Senate.  

Chris Coons (D) is the big favorite to keep the Senate seat for Democrats, while Democrats have one of their rare pickup opportunities for the House in this state as well, as John Carney (D) is favored to defeat the more conservative GOP nominee Glen Urquhart (R).

PENNSYLVANIA - The Keystone State may well give us one of the best indicators on what will happen nationally in Election 2010 by what the voters decide in House and Senate races, as Republicans are hoping to pick up four House seats and the U.S. Senate seat as well.

The Senate race was thought to be solidly in the hands of Republican Pat Toomey, a former Congressman, but Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) has made a late rush in the polls, and given Democrats hope of keeping this seat, now held by Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).

In the House, as many as a half dozen Democratic seats could be in play in next week's elections.  They include PA-3, where freshman Democratic Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is in serious trouble; PA-7, the seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak; PA-8, where Rep. Patrick Murphy is trying to fend off a challenge by former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R); Rep. Chris Carney (D) is also in trouble in PA-10; maybe looking for new work will be veteran Rep. Paul Kanjorski in PA-11.

Also watch PA-12, where Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA), who won this seat back in May to replace the late Rep. John Murtha, faces a re-match with the same Republican from that May special election.

NEW JERSEY - While Gov. Chris Christie (R) is getting a lot of attention in Presidential circles, there is little action in the Garden State in terms of the Congress.  The one race that is on the radar is in NJ-3, where Rep. John Adler (D-NJ) faces a challenge from former NFL player Jon Runyan.  One problem for Runyan is that the ballot also includes a Libertarian, a NJ Tea Party and another Independent candidate, who could well dilute the anti-Adler vote.
A poll out in recent days gives Runyan some hope, as he led Adler 40-37%.

NEW YORK - Just as Pennsylvania could be big for the Republicans trying to win back the House, so could the Empire State.  Democrats though are heavily favored to win both Senate seats up this year, as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is expected to win the special election to fill the seat once held by Hillary Clinton and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) is expected to easily cruise to another term in office as well.

On the House side, Republicans can only go up in New York - why do I say that?  Because right now, the GOP only has 2 of the 29 seats in the New York Congressional delegation.  Some Republicans think they have a chance to knock off four Democrats, and maybe more.

The most likely seat to go GOP is the open contest in NY-29, the seat of former Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY).  You remember him -- he's the guy that had "tickle fights" with his staff members and more -- he resigned his seat back in March.  

The Democrat most in danger seems to be Rep. John Hall in NY-19, as recent polls have him behind or tied with Republican Nan Hayworth.  Also in flux, NY-23, where Republicans hope to defeat Rep. Bill Owens (D).  Owens won this seat only because of a conservative candidate who ran and split the anti-Dem vote, and that is not being repeated this time around.

Republicans also have their eyes on NY-24, held by Rep. Mike Arcuri (D-NY), but Arcuri has been doing well in the polls.  If the wave is big enough, the GOP could also threaten in NY-20 held by Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in NY-1.  Bishop has been outraised by his opponent Randy Altschuler, but Bishop's lead has held steady in the polls.

CONNECTICUT - As we turn the corner into the Nutmeg State, it is important to note that there are no Republicans in the House from the states that make up New England.  Republicans hope to change that in Connecticut, where two seats have become "Toss-Ups" in recent weeks.

President Obama will be traveling to CT-4 this Saturday to do an event for freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), who defeated former Rep. Chris Shays (R) two years ago.  Shays has endorsed Himes' opponent, state Senator Dan Debicella, and this race has gotten testy in recent weeks.  Himes has been trying to show his independence from the White House, while Debicella has been trying to tie him directly to President Obama's policies.

The other House seat in play is CT-5, which is held by Rep. Scott Murphy (D-CT).  Murphy won this four years ago, when he defeated the incumbent Nancy Johnson.  That was a wave election in 2006, and if this is a wave election in 2010, Murphy could find himself being swept into Long Island Sound.

On the Senate side, initially this race looked competitive between state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, but Blumenthal has opened up a strong, double digit lead in the polls.

RHODE ISLAND - It surprised me a lot to see that President Obama would be making a trip to Rhode Island, but that's where he is on this Monday, as he will raise money for the Democrat running for the seat of retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI).  It will say a lot about Democratic troubles if Providence Mayor David Cicilline has any troubles holding on to this seat.

The other interesting race in the Ocean State is for Governor, where former GOP Senator - now Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee had the lead, but is now in a close race with Democrat Frank Caprio.  President Obama has not endorsed Caprio and with word that no endorsement is coming, Caprio today lashed out at Mr. Obama, saying on a Providence radio station that the President could take his endorsement and "shove it."

MASSACHUSETTS - The Bay State has an active Governor's race, and a lot of talk about longshots in the House.  Yes, I know people say that Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) might be in trouble in MA-4, pointing to Frank lending his campaign money and the support that's been going to Republican Sean Bielat - but it still is a longshot.

Maybe the better chance for a GOP upset would be in the open seat of MA-10, a district that Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) won during his special election victory back in January.  Incumbent Rep. William Delahunt (D-MA) is retiring, giving the GOP a rare opening in this delegation that is currently composed of 10 Democrats.

One other race worth mentioning is MA-6, where recent legal troubles for the wife of Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) put this race in the spotlight.  Tierney's wife earlier this month plead guilty to helping her brother file false tax returns dealing with illegal gambling profits, trying to help him launder the money and avoid taxes.  Tierney's opponent quickly tried to tie the Democrat to his wife's actions.  We'll see if it shakes the tree on Election Day.

VERMONT - No change in Congress is expected in this very blue state, as Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) is expected to cruise to victory in his bid for a 7th term in office (first elected in 1974.)  The Vermont ballot for Senate includes three Independents, one Socialist and one candidate of the U.S. Marijuana Party.  Over in the House, Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) is also expected to win easily.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Republicans were worried last year that they might lose the Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Judd Gregg, but now it looks like this seat will stay in GOP hands, as former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) seems to be in charge of this race.

On the House side, the GOP is pushing for a Granite State Daily Double, trying to win back the seats of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1) and Rep. Paul Hodes (NH-2).  Both of those Democrats won in 2006, so just as the wave rushed across New Hampshire in favor of Democrats that year, it could wash those two away in 2010.  Shea-Porter is the more likely of the two to lose.

MAINE - The Pine Tree State is not expected to throw any upset curveballs at us on Election Day, as both Democrats in the House are expected to win re-election.  The big one in Maine is the Governor's race, which could be grabbed by the GOP.


So that wraps up our first look at the 2010 Elections in-depth.  Tuesday, I will focus on raises in the South; Wednesday is the Midwest and Plains states, and on Thursday we look out West.